Incentives on the Line: Top NFL Player Props for Week 18

 

Photo From Fox Sports 

Today marks the last day of the 2024 NFL regular season. I tend to avoid betting on spreads or totals during the last week of the season. With the exception of 5-6 teams, the rest of the league already knows whether to prepare for the playoffs or the offseason. The teams heading to the playoffs will be sitting their starters to avoid injuries and the teams that did not make the playoffs generally play with little motivation in Week 18.

Normally, I stay away from player prop bets, but in Week 18, I love them because of two words: “contract incentives.” NFL player contract incentives are additional payments awarded to players for achieving specific performance goals or milestones during the regular season. These payments are in addition to their base salary.

Considering the season ends today, it is the last chance for players to reach these incentives. If a player can realistically achieve an incentive in the final game of the regular season, teammates will make an effort to ensure their guy gets paid.

With that said, here are a few of my favorite player props for Week 18.

Mike Evans Over 6.5 Receptions (-165) and 90+ Receiving Yards (-180)

Mike Evans will earn $3 million if he has 70 receptions and 1,000 receiving yards for the year. Evans currently has 65 receptions and 915 receiving yards on the season. If Evans hits 1,000 receiving yards, it’ll be his 11th straight season doing so, putting him alongside Jerry Rice as the only receivers to ever pull it off. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has told the press he will try his best to help Evans reach 1,000 yards. Evans is currently averaging 5 receptions and 70 receiving yards per game. The Bucs are playing the Saints, who have been eliminated from the playoffs.

Geno Smith 200+ Passing Yards (-450)

Geno Smith will earn $2 million if he throws for 186 yards. In order to earn this incentive, he will need to surpass 4,282 passing yards for the season, which was his career-best, set back in 2022. Geno currently has 4,097 yards for the season. Geno is averaging 256 passing yards per game. The Seahawks are going up against the Los Angeles Rams, who have already clinched the playoffs and will be resting their starters. The Seahawks are eliminated from the playoffs, so the only thing Geno has left to play for this season is a big payday.

Courtland Sutton +80 Receiving Yards (-130)

Courtland Sutton will earn $250,000 if he has 1,065 receiving yards for the season. Sutton currently has 983 yards on the season, so 82 receiving yards is the magic number. This bet is riskier than the other two, as Sutton averages just 61 receiving yards per game. However, this game is very important for the Broncos, and Sutton has been a huge part of the Broncos' offense this season. If the Broncos win outright, they are in the playoffs. If the Broncos lose, they will need the Miami Dolphins to lose in order to make the playoffs. Sutton will certainly have the opportunity to reach this goal as he leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. It also helps his case that the Broncos are facing off against the Chiefs, who have clinched the playoffs and will be sitting starters.

Parlay (+308)

Considering most of these odds are too high to bet straight up, I am electing to parlay these picks. If you parlay Evans over 6.5 receptions, Evans 90+ receiving yards, Smith 200+ passing yards, and Sutton 80+ receiving yards, those odds are +308, very juicy.