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The divisional round of the 2025 NFL playoffs is here. Eight teams remain, with two games scheduled for today and two more for tomorrow.
Today's slate kicks off with the Houston Texans (fourth seed in the AFC) traveling to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs (first seed in the AFC). Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 pm ET. The second game of the day features the Washington Commanders (sixth seed in the NFC) traveling West to take on the Detroit Lions (first seed in the NFC).
At the time this article is written, DraftKings has both hometown teams as 8.5-point favorites. I am going to break down one major factor from each game that I believe will determine if the underdog can cover the spread and possibly win outright.
Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs: Houston D-line vs. Kansas City O-Line
Houston shocked many in the the NFL world last Saturday when they came into the wild card game as three-point underdogs and ended up defeating the Los Angeles Chargers 32-12. The credit for their success can be pointed to their defensive line.
The defensive line was absolutely dominant against the Chargers. They recorded four team sacks and had five other tackles for a loss. Although they did not recover a fumble, they forced three of them. The pressure got to Justin Herbert, who made several quick and indecisive throws, which led to him getting picked off four times, an incredible stat considering Herbert only threw three picks the entire regular season.
If Houston can bring that kind of pressure against Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs will be in a world of trouble, and it's not crazy to think that may be the case. During the last four weeks of the regular season, the Chiefs’ offensive line ranked 30th among 32 teams. This past Tuesday, Andy Reid stated he intends to rotate Joe Thuney and D.J. Humphries during practice this week but has not yet decided who will start at left tackle against the Texans. Humphries has been the left tackle for the Chiefs for a majority of the season but missed weeks 14-17 with an injury, forcing Thuney, whose natural position is left guard, to rotate to left tackle. Humphries did play in Week 18, but the rust of missing a few weeks was very apparent, as Humphries allowed two sacks, one QB hit, two QB hurries, and six QB pressures.
Left tackle is the most important position on the line, as he protects the quarterback's blind spot. If Humphries continues to struggle against a ferocious Houston defensive front, it could be a long day for Mahomes.
Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions: Commanders Time of Possession
The Washington Commanders secured an exciting win in the wild card round last Sunday as Zane Gonzalez doinked in a 37-yard field goal as time was expiring in the fourth quarter to give the Commanders a 23-20 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
While this game came down to a last-second field goal, it was actually not as close as one may think, and that's because the Washington Commanders completely controlled the time of possession.
The Commanders possessed the ball for 35:26 of the game, compared to the Bucs, who had the ball for 24:34. The Commanders had the ball for 10:92 minutes longer than the Bucs, which is significant considering each quarter is only 15 minutes.
The key to their time of possession was their success on first down. Whether it was Jayden Daniels scrambling or a member of the running back committee taking a handoff, the Commanders consistently gained around four to five yards on first down. This shorter field made converting on third and fourth down much easier for the Commanders, who were 8-15 on third down and 3-5 on fourth down.
There is no bigger threat on offense in the NFL than the Detroit Lions. They finished first in points per game and second in total yards per game during the regular season. They have the best rushing attack in football, with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. They also have a plethora of talented receivers, including Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Sam LaPorta, to name a few.
Considering the Commanders are nothing special on defense (finished 13th in yards allowed per game and 18th in points allowed per game), they will need to ensure the Lions have as few opportunities as possible to score, which means keeping that Detroit offense off the field.
What are some other key factors in these matchups? Comment below.
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