3 Bold ATD Scorer Bets for Wild Card Sunday

Photo From oddschecker.com

Wild Card Sunday is finally here. While most people are analyzing the spreads and totals, I thought I would take a different approach. I am going to be looking at ATD scorers, and since it's the first postseason Sunday of the year, I’ll be less conservative with my picks—because why not?

I do not recommend betting your normal unit on these picks because they are risky. However, they are certainly worth sprinkling a little cash on, especially if you plan to parlay them.

There are three games lined up for today, I will give an ATD scorer for each game. These lines are courtesy of DratKings.

Khalil Shakir +225 on DraftKings

The Buffalo Bills (#2 seed in AFC) host the Denver Broncos (#7 seed in the AFC); kickoff is at 1:00 pm ET.

The Buffalo Bills were an offensive powerhouse this season, averaging 30.2 points per game, which ranked second in the league, only behind the Detroit Lions. On the ground, their game script has been pretty obvious: run the ball with James Cook and Josh Allen. Especially in the red zone, as this duo combined for 28 of the team's 30 total rushing touchdowns during the regular season.

Through the air, the Bills’ game script is much less predictable, as Josh Allen does a fantastic job of spreading the ball around to different receivers, especially in the red zone. Josh Allen has thrown 28 touchdown passes this season to 13 different receivers. That stat alone makes betting on any player to score a receiving touchdown for the Bills a bit risky.

With that said, there is one player Josh Allen looks to more than anyone else on the team when he drops back to pass, and that’s Khalil Shakir. Shakir leads the team with 100 targets on the season, which is the most by a landslide. Dalton Kincaid is second on the team in targets, with 75.

Shakir only has four touchdown receptions on the year, but once the playoffs start, quarterbacks tend to rely even more on players they built trust with during the regular season, which bodes well for Shakir.

Tucker Kraft +260 on DraftKings

The second matchup of the day features the Green Bay Packers (#7 seed in the NFC) heading East to take on the Philadelphia Eagles (#2 seed in the NFC). Kickoff is set for 4:30 pm ET. 

The Packers finished eighth in the league in scoring, averaging 27.1 points per game. With the offseason addition of Josh Jacobs, the Packers were able to trust the ground game. Green Bay averaged 370.8 yards per game; 146.8 of those were on the ground, accounting for 40% of their total yards. Only the Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles, and Washington Commanders had rushing yards make up more than 40% of their total offensive output.

The Packers relied even more on the run in the red zone. The Packers had 38 rushing touchdowns and 28 receiving touchdowns on the season.

With that in mind, I believe Eagles Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio will focus on stopping the run, especially when the Packers are in scoring position.

So, why not take a risk and bet on the player who led the Packers in receiving touchdowns during the regular season, Tucker Kraft. The second-year Tight End out of South Dakota State had himself a very solid sophomore campaign, ending the season with 70 receptions for 707 yards and seven touchdowns.

I also have a bad feeling that the Eagles could jump out to an early lead, forcing the Packers to play come-from-behind football, which results in a heavy passing attack, heightening Tucker's touchdown chances.

Zach Ertz +250 on DraftKings

The Sunday night game is the most evenly matched of the day as the Washington Commanders (#6 seed in the NFC) head south to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (#3 seed in the NFC). Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 pm ET. 

The Washington Commanders have been one of the biggest surprises of this NFL season. Rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels has played even better than advertised, and he looks like a runaway to win Rookie of the Year. Daniels was the second overall pick of the 2024 NFL draft, arriving on a team that went 4-13 in 2023.

The Commanders have been an elite offensive team this season, finishing fifth in points per game (28.5). They were especially effective running the ball. The Commanders averaged 154.1 rushing yards per game, which ranked third in the league.

Although the Commander's strength on offense was led by their running back committee and Jayden Daniels running ability, they were more effective in the red zone through the air, finishing the season with 29 receiving touchdowns compared to 25 rushing touchdowns.

Terry McLaurin was Daniels clear number one target in the red zone this season, finishing with 13 receiving touchdowns, the second most in the league. However, there was another receiver that Daniels has built chemistry with throughout the season who has become a really solid number two option, veteran Tight End Zach Ertz.

Ertz was second on the team in receptions (66), receiving yards (654), and touchdowns (7). The 11th-year veteran is having a comeback season, as this is the first team he has had over 600 yards since 2019, and this is the most touchdowns he's ever had in a single season.

All of Ertz's touchdowns have come in the past 10 weeks, with three of them coming in the previous two weeks. That shows me that the chemistry has continued to develop in the right direction and that Ertz is a hot target right now.

It does not hurt that the Buccaneers are one of the worst teams in the league at defending the pass. The Bucs gave up 243.9 receiving yards per game this season, which ranked 29th in the league during the regular season.

Parlay

All these odds are juicy enough that you can sprinkle each of them straight up, but if you are feeling spicy and want to make this a three-leg parlay, the odds I am getting on DraftKings at the time this blog is released are +3995. If you throw $5 on this parlay and it hits, the total payout is $204.75.