Commanders vs. Eagles: 3 Bets I Like for Week 11 Thursday Night Football

 

Photo From USA Today Sports 

Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season kicks off with a banger tonight as the Washington Commanders (7-3) head to Lincoln Financial Field to take on their division rival, the Philadelphia Eagles (7-2). The Eagles are currently a half game up in the NFC East. If the Commanders win tonight, they retake first place in the division. Both of these teams are trending towards playoff appearances and the battle for the division might come down to the wire, so we should be seeing a very heated matchup tonight between two heavily motivated teams.

Most sportsbooks currently have the home team as a four-point favorite entering this contest with the total set at 49.5.

Here are three bets that I like for tonight.

1. Washington Commanders +4

Washington should have extra motivation tonight after a tough 28-27 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. The Commanders took a 27-21 lead with 2:51 left in the 4th quarter, but the Steelers quickly responded with a drive capped by a 32-yard touchdown pass to Mike Williams, putting Pittsburgh ahead with only 2:22 remaining.

Washington has proven they can compete with top teams, with two of their three losses coming against the Steelers (7-2) and a hard fought 30-23 game against the Baltimore Ravens (7-3).

The same cannot yet be said about the Eagles, who have played poor competition during their active five game winning streak, which includes the Browns (2-7), Giants (2-8), Bengals (4-6), Jaguars (2-8) and Cowboys (3-6).

In fact, the Eagles have only played two teams (Green Bay Packers and Atlanta Falcons) that currently have winnings records, they are 1-1 in those two games.

From a statistical perspective, these teams are both elite on offense.

The Commanders currently rank fourth in the league in yards per game (223.5) and in points scored per game (29) while the Eagles rank sixth in yards per game (197.8) and seventh in points per game (25.9).

On defense, the Eagles have a clear advantage on paper, but these numbers are misleading, given their unusually easy strength of schedule for Philadelphia. The Eagles defense gives up the second-fewest yards per game (274.1) and are fifth-fewest points allowed per game (17.9). The Commanders rank 14th in fewest yards allowed per game (324.9) and 12th in fewest points allowed per game (21.7)

Considering the Commanders are out to prove themselves after the Steelers loss and the Eagles haven’t faced a team with a winning record since September 16th, I like Washington’s chances to not only cover the four-point spread at Lincoln Financial, but possibly win outright.

2. Brian Robinson Jr. Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)

Robinson is set to suit up tonight after missing the last two weeks with a hamstring injury. The running back room in Washington is crowded with the likes of Austin Ekeler, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez Jr.

However, it is clear that Robinson is the lead running back on this team. Robinson has missed three games this season and still leads all Washington running backs in carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns.

Robinson has six rushing touchdowns in seven games played this season. Given his production, I am confident he will see opportunities in the red zone tonight.

3. Jayden Daniels Under 41.5 Rushing Yards

Through ten games played this season, Daniels is averaging 46.4 rushing yards per game. Those numbers are slightly misleading, as he has two games that were outliers. In his first career game, Daniels carried the ball 16 times for 88 yards and in week 5, he had 11 carries for 82 yards. If you eliminate those two games from the equation, his average drops down to 36.8 rushing yards per game.

Daniels has struggled to get anything going on the ground in his last two starts. Against the New York Giants, he rushed for 35 yards on eight carries and last week against the Steelers, he only had five yards on three carries.

The Eagles' numbers may be misleading due to their easy schedule, but it's important to note the Eagles defense has given up an average of 11.5 rushing yards per game to quarterbacks this season.

Even with their laughable schedule, the Eagles’ front seven have shown they can keep quarterbacks from being mobile, so it’s not unrealistic to think they can contain Daniels in the pocket.

What picks do you like for tonight? Comment below.