Two Totals I Like For Week 6

 

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I almost never bet on the total in NFL games. I just think it's way more fun to go with the spread or moneyline and root for a team to win instead of sitting there hoping both teams either score a ton or hardly score at all.

The only time I will bet the over/under on a total is when I can't find a spread or moneyline I am confident in taking.

Week 6 is one of those rare times where I dug into the numbers and decided to skip the spreads and moneylines, focusing on totals instead.

With that said, here are my two favorite totals to bet on for today.

Arizona Cardinals (2-3) @ Green Bay Packers (3-2) OVER 47.5

The Green Bay Packers host the Arizona Cardinals in week 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm ET.

The thought process for taking the over here is very simple; each team's strength offensively is the other team's weakness on defense.

The Cardinals currently rank fifth in the league in total rushing yards, averaging 156.4 yards per contest. James Connor presently ranks seventh among running backs in yards, totaling 379 so far. Kyler Murray leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards with 247 total for the season up to this point.

Although the Packers' rushing defense has improved compared to years past, they have still been subject to giving up big games against running backs this season. In week 1, Saquon Barkley rushed for 106 yards and two touchdowns against the Packers. In week 4, Aaron Jones rushed for 93 yards against Green Bay, and just last week, the Packers let up 102 yards and a touchdown to Kyren Williams.

Coincidentally, the same holds true for the Packers offense and the Cardinals defense.

The Packers are currently fourth in the league in rushing yards, averaging 164.8 yards per game. The rushing attack is led by Josh Jacobs, who currently sits fourth amongst all running backs in rushing yards with 402 for the season.

The Cardinals currently rank 26th in rushing defense, allowing 147.8 rushing yards per game. The Cardinals have allowed eight rushing touchdowns so far this season; only the Carolina Panthers (nine) have given up more.

I expect these trends to continue in week 6, and I anticipate a high-scoring matchup.

PICK: OVER 47.5

Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) @ Denver Broncos (3-2) UNDER 35.5

The Denver Broncos host the Los Angeles Chargers in week 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05pm ET.

Two reasons why I like the under in this contest.

1. This game is taking place in Denver, and the altitude is no joke. It's well known that teams can tire out quickly when playing at high elevations in Denver. That is always good for the under.
2. Both teams are at the top of the league defensively and at the bottom of the league offensively.

The Denver Broncos offense currently ranks 28th in yards per game, averaging 270.6 through the air and ground. Rookie Quarterback Bo Nix is still trying to find his footing in the pros. Through five games, he has thrown more interceptions (four) than he has touchdowns (three). Nix also ranks 25th in total passing yards with 866. The running game is doing Nix no favors; the duo of Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin has proven to be a failure so far. Both running backs have yet to reach 200 yards for the season through five weeks and Williams has yet to score a touchdown.

The Chargers defense ranks fourth in fewest yards allowed per game, holding opponents to 282.5 yards per contest. The also rank fourth in the league with a +5 turnover differential (they have five more turnovers than they do giveaways).

The Chargers offense currently ranks 29th in total yards per game, averaging 263.8. Due to losing key offensive pieces in the offseason and dealing with a plethora of injuries, Chargers Quarterback Justin Herbert has struggled to start the 2024 season. Through four games played this season (Chargers had a bye last week), Herbert has thrown for 578 yards, which ranks 31st among quarterbacks. Herbert's total QBR is 41.9, which ranks 26th among starting quarterbacks. This is by no means all Herbert's fault. The offensive line has been banged up all year, which has made it difficult for Herbert to build chemistry with receivers.Rookie Ladd McConkey leads the team with 15 receptions and 176 receiving yards, averaging under four catches and fewer than 45 yards per game.

The Broncos defense gives up the third fewest yards per game to opponents, surrendering 271.2 yards per contest. The Broncos rank sixth in the league in turnovers forced (eight).

Considering the Chargers injuries and the lack of experience from Denver's offense, while also taking into consideration that altitude, I predict this will be a slow-moving game with little action on the scoreboard.

Pick: UNDER 35.5

What bets are you taking in week 6? Comment below.