Can the Mets Be the Next 6th Seed Cinderella? Why Recent History Says They Can

Photo From MLB.com

Since MLB expanded the Wild Card race to four teams in 2022, the measure of projected success in the playoffs has less to do with regular-season results and more to do with building momentum in the Wild Card Series.

Six teams from each league qualify for the postseason. In both years since the expansion began, a sixth seed has reached the World Series.

I’ll take a closer look at those two teams and predict my Cinderella story for the 2024 postseason.

2022 Philadelphia Phillies

The 2022 Phillies started the year off cold, going 21-29, leading into June. On June 3, Manager Joe Girardi was fired. Rob Thomson took over as the new interim manager, leading the Phillies to a 65-46 record for the remainder of the season.

The Phillies ended the 2022 season with a record of 87-75, finishing third in the NL East and landing the sixth seed in the National League.

The Phillies faced off against the third-seeded St. Louis Cardinals in the Wild Card Series, who won the NL Central with a record of 93-69. This is when the Phillies' momentum rose. In Game 1, Philadelphia was down 2-0 going into the 9th inning. The Phillies would rally to score six runs and take Game 1 by a final score of 6-3. In Game 2, they received a lights-out performance by Aaron Nola and their bullpen, and they defeated the Cardinals 2-0, sweeping the series.

The Phillies would end up facing their division rival, the Atlanta Braves, for the National League Division Series. The Atlanta Braves went on an absolute tear from June until the end of the regular season, compiling a record of 75-34 since June 1st, making them serious contenders to win the World Series. Unfortunately for the Braves, they caught a red-hot Phillies team who dismantled them. The Phillies swept the Braves and outscored them in the series 24-9.

In the National League Championship Series, the Phillies would face off against another Wild Card team, the San Diego Padres. The only hiccup in that series for the Phillies was in Game 2, where they gave up a four-run lead. However, that would be the only game the Phillies lost in the series, as they bested the Padres in five games.

The Phillies would advance to play the Houston Astros, who were making their fourth World Series appearance in six years. The Phillies won a thriller in extra innings to take Game 1. Houston would tie the series before heading to Philadelphia for Game 3, where the Phillies scorched the Astros 7-0. That would be the end of the magical postseason run, as the Astros would win the next three straight and be crowned the 2022 World Series Champions.

2023 Arizona Diamondbacks

The 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks had an up-and-down season and finished with a record of 84-78. They finished second in the NL West and landed the sixth seed in the NL Wild Card.

The Diamondbacks headed to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers in the Wild Card Series. The Brewers finished with a record of 92-70, which was good enough to clinch the NL Central and land them a third seed. Like the Phillies the year before, this is when the Diamondbacks started heating up. They easily handled the Brewers, sweeping them in two games by a combined score of 11-5.

The Diamondbacks would then head to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers. The Dodgers were serious contenders to win the World Series after finishing the season with a record of 100-62. The Diamondbacks were bested by their division rival in the regular season 5-8. However, the postseason saw two completely different teams. The Diamondbacks shocked the baseball world and made easy work of the Dodgers, sweeping them in three games by a combined score of 19-6.

In the National League pennant, the Diamondbacks would meet against the Philadelphia Phillies and face their first challenge of these playoffs. The Phillies finished 90-72 in the regular season, which was good enough for second place in the NL East and landed them the fourth seed in the Wild Card. Through two games, this series looks finished. The Phillies took a 2-0 lead, crushing the Diamondbacks by a combined score of 15-3. The Diamondbacks refused to go away, winning by a one-run margin in each of the next two games to tie the series. The Phillies took back control in Game 5, winning 6-1. With the Phillies up 3-2 heading back to Philadelphia, everyone thought the Diamondbacks' run was over. The Diamondbacks would go on to shock the baseball universe and easily win the next two games in Philadelphia by a combined score of 9-3.

The Diamondbacks matched up against the Texas Rangers in the World Series, who were the 5th seed in the AL. This was truly a battle of the underdogs in the World Series, as before the season started, the Rangers' odds to make the World Series were 50:1, while the Diamondbacks' odds were a whopping 125:1. In Game 1, the Diamondbacks lost in heartbreaking fashion. Up 5-3 entering the bottom of the ninth inning, the Rangers would tie it up with a two-run homer and then win it in the 11th inning with a walk-off solo home run. Arizona retook control in Game 2, winning 9-1. However, that would be the one and only win of the series for the Diamondbacks, who would go on to lose the next three games.

2024 New York Mets

The New York Mets struggled immensely to begin the 2024 season; they were 23-25 on June 2nd. From there on out, the Mets would have the best record in baseball, finishing 65-48.

The Mets ended the regular season with a record of 89-73. They finished third in the NL East and earned the sixth seed in the NL entering the postseason.

The Mets clinched a playoff spot on the last day of the regular season in a makeup doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves. If they split the series, both teams would advance to the playoffs, so winning Game 1 was crucial. The Braves held a 3-0 lead entering the 8th inning, where the Mets offense came alive and scored six runs. The Braves would answer with vengeance in the bottom half of the 8th and score four runs of their own, giving them a 7-6 lead entering the 9th. The Mets would respond again with a two-run home run from Francisco Lindor to give them an 8-7 lead, which they kept for the remainder of the contest.

The Mets traveled to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers for the Wild Card Series. The Brewers finished the season at 93-69, good enough to clinch the NL East and the third seed in the postseason.

In Game 1, the Mets gave up two first-inning runs but would answer right back by taking the lead in the second. The Mets held a 3-2 lead until the 4th inning, where the Brewers would score two more runs to take a 4-3 lead. The Mets would respond aggressively in the 5th, putting up five runs to take an 8-4 lead, which they kept the rest of the way.

Game 2 saw an exchange of runs early, as the Mets took a 3-1 lead after the second. The Brewers would lead 3-2 in the 5th inning. In the 8th inning, the Mets sent reliever Phil Matton to the mound, who would give up a solo home run to tie the game, a single, and then a two-run home run to give the Brewers a 5-3 lead in the bottom of the 8th, a lead they would keep the rest of the game.

With a gut-wrenching Game 2 loss, everyone thought the Mets momentum had died down completely, and for the first eight innings of Game 3, that appeared to be the case. The game was scoreless entering the 7th inning, when Jose Butto came onto relief for the Mets and gave up back-to-back solo home runs to give the Brewers a 2-0 lead.

In the top of the 9th, Francisco Lindor started the inning by drawing a walk. Mark Vientos then struck out. Brandon Nimmo would go on to hit a single. With two runners on and one out, Pete Alonso came to the plate. Alonso is in a contract year and has been playing well below expectations this season. With his career on the line, Alonso did the impossible; he hit a three-run homer to give the Mets a 3-2 lead. They would score an additional run in the 9th to give them a 4-2 lead, which they kept for the remainder of the game.

With the Mets riding high from an exhilarating Wild Card victory, they headed to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies. Unlike 2022, the Phillies were a powerhouse during the regular season this year, finishing 95-67; they clinched the NL East and were the first seed in the NL entering the playoffs.

In Game 1, the Phillies elected to send out Cy Young candidate and former New York Met Zach Wheeler as their starter. In a surprise turn of events, the Mets went with Kodai Senga, who just pitched one game all season due to multiple injuries. Wheeler dominated his former team, giving up one run and striking out eight through seven innings. The Phillies had a 1-0 lead entering the 8th inning thanks to a solo home run from Kyle Schwarber back in the first inning. As soon as Wheeler went out, the Mets offense woke up. The Mets torched the Phillies bullpen in the 8th inning, generating five runs in the 8th inning and tacking on one more in the 9th. The Phillies would counter with one run in the bottom of the 9th, as the Mets took Game 1 by a final score of 6-2.

Game 2 is scheduled for today; the first pitch is set for 4:08 pm ET. Luis Severino is on the mound for the Mets, while Christopher Sanchez is on the mound for the Phillies.

Bottom Line

Given the success of the sixth seeds over the last two years, the Mets have every reason to be optimistic. The 2022 Phillies and 2023 Diamondbacks both overcame tough regular seasons yet found their rhythm at the perfect time to reach the World Series. With their recent momentum and a proven formula for Wild Card teams to thrive in October, the Mets could be poised to replicate that magic. If they continue to play fearlessly and get timely performances from key players, the Mets have a real shot to be this year’s surprise team.

Do you think the Mets have a shot at a World Series run? Comment below.