Mets' Path to NLDS: Three Crucial Factors for Game 3

 

Photo From MLB.com

The New York Mets and the Milwaukee Brewers are scheduled to play Game 3 of this Wild Card series tonight at 7:00 pm ET. José Quintana (10-10, 3.75 ERA) is the starter for the Mets, while the Brewers will turn to rookie Tobias Myers (9-6, 3.00 ERA).

As a Mets fan, Game 1 was awesome to watch. After a back-and-forth contest through the first four innings, the Mets scored five runs in the 5th inning to give them an 8-4 lead, which they kept for the remainder of the game.

Game 2 was a heartbreaker for the Mets. After both teams exchanged runs in the first inning, the Mets took a 3-1 lead in the second. Blake Perkins hit a sac fly in the 5th to make it 3-2, and then came the disastrous 8th inning. Phil Maton, acquired from the Rays in July, gave up a solo homer to 20-year-old Jackson Chourio on his third pitch. Maton got two outs but then surrendered a single to Willy Adames and a crushing two-run homer to Garrett Mitchell, giving the Brewers a 5-3 win after shutting down the Mets in the 9th.

Here are three factors for the Mets to win Game 3 and advance to the NLDS.

1. José Quintana Must Throw At Least Five Innings: 

Five innings is the bare minimum, but the goal should really be 6+. Quintana is not anywhere close to being an elite pitcher, but he has been solid this season, and the 35-year-old is experienced with playing postseason baseball; this will be his sixth postseason start of his career. 

The major reason Quintana needs to last at least five innings is because the Mets’ bullpen is not reliable. In the regular season, the bullpen finished with a 4.04 ERA, which ranked 18th in baseball.The top three relievers who threw the most innings for the Mets this season were Adam Ottavino, who finished with a 4.34 ERA; Edwin Díaz, who finished with a 3.52 ERA; and Reed Garrett, who finished with a 3.77 ERA. 

If the Mets do win this game, they will only have one day of rest before playing against Phillies on Saturday and would want as many fresh arms available as possible.

2. Cannot Leave Baserunners Stranded: 

Getting runners on base was not the issue for the Mets in Game 2, as they had eight hits and drew two walks. However, they left nine base runners stranded because they were awful with runners in scoring position. 

They finished 2-for-11 (Iglesias 0-for-1, Lindor 0-for-1, Nimmo 1-for-1, Taylor 0-for-2, Alonso 0-for-2, Vientos 0-for-1, Álvarez 1-for-3) with RISP.

That stat alone really drives the entire point; missed opportunities simply can’t happen, especially when your opponent is an offensive threat, like the Brewers, who finished in the top 10 in almost every offensive category this season.

3. Pete Alonso Must Step Up: 

One of the players mentioned in point two was Pete Alonso, who went 0-2 with RISP last night. 

His first opportunity with RISP was straight up embarrassing. With runners on the corners and one out, Alonso grounded to short and dropped his bat directly in his running path to first base, where he then tripped over the bat, allowing the Brewers to turn a double play, killing the Mets' rally and ending the inning. 

This has been a theme for Alonso all season, who is batting just .232 with runners on base. 

On top of that, Alonso has made himself known for being an elite home run hitter. That reputation might be slipping as he has failed to hit a home run in the postseason yet and only finished 12th among home run leaders this season. 

Alonso is in a contract year and will become a free agent this offseason. Alonso already declined a seven-year, $158 million offer from the Mets last year. If Alonso thinks he is worth around $25 million a season, then he better start hitting bombs with runners on base. Alonso is not just hurting the team; he is hurting his own checkbook with his poor play.

Who do you think takes Game 3? Comment below.