Two Crucial Series Could Decide the NL Wild-Card Race

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The 2024 MLB regular season wraps up on 9/29/24.

With just ten days left, most teams have a clear sense of their playoff chances, but a few are still intensely battling for a wildcard spot.

Here’s a quick breakdown of how MLB playoff eligibility works:

• Six teams from each league (American and National) make the playoffs: the three division winners and the three teams with the best records that didn’t win their division, known as wildcard teams.

• The division winner with the lowest seed (worst record) joins the three wildcard teams in the wildcard round, making four teams total. 

• They face off in a best-of-three series, with the two winners advancing to the next round.

As a lifetime New York Mets fan, my attention has been focused on the NL wildcard race, which the Mets are heavily involved in.  

Below are the wildcard standings as of 9/19/24, prior to any MLB games being played today.

To consider this competition “tight” would be an understatement. The Padres sit atop the NL wildcard standings by only two and a half games. The New York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks share the same record at 84-68, which is good enough to hold the last two wildcard spots. To top it all off, the Atlanta Braves are just two games back from the Mets and Dbacks and four and a half games back from the Padres. 

With only ten days remaining in the regular season, the significance of winning each game for these four teams is immeasurable. 

I was curious to see the strength of schedule over the next ten days for the four teams competing for the NL wildcard. That is when I discovered what could end up being the two most important regular season series of the entire year, at least in the NL. 

1. New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves September 24th, 2024 - September 26th, 2024

These division rivals face off for a three-game series starting this upcoming Tuesday. As long as the Braves stay within three games of the Mets before this series, they have a chance to either overtake the Mets or tie the Mets for the last wildcard spot. 

These division rivals have faced each other ten times this year, with the series record even at 5-5. 

Prior to the series, the Mets head to Philadelphia to take on the Phillies for four games. Philadelphia has not mathematically clinched the division yet, but with a seven-game lead over the Mets in the NL East with ten days left in the season, fangraph gives the Phillies a 99% chance of clinching the division. There is not too much on the line here for the Phillies.

Prior to this series, the Braves play one more game against the Cincinnati Reds and than head to Miami for a three-game series with the Marlins. Neither team should worry the Braves, as the Reds and Marlins are eliminated from the playoffs.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres September 27th, 2024 - September 29th, 2024

This wildcard race can potentially come down to the last game of the regular season. As if it were written for a movie, the Arizona Diamondbacks play their last regular season series against the top runner in the NL wildcard standings, the San Diego Padres.

Listen, both of these teams have two more series to play before matching up against each other. A lot can happen in those six games prior to this matchup, and this series can become meaningless. However, there is still a very strong probability these teams are fighting for a wildcard spot in the last days of September. 

These teams have faced off against each other ten times this season, with the series locked even at 5-5. 

Prior to this series, the Diamondbacks head to Milwaukee to take on the Brewers in a four-game contest, and then they fly home and host the San Francisco Giants for three games. The Brewers have already clinched the division, and the Giants have less than a 1% chance of making the wildcard, both advantages for the Dbacks. 

Prior to this series, the Padres host the Chicago White Sox for three games and then head to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers for three games. The White Sox series should not be competitive, as the 2024 White Sox are one of the worst teams in MLB history. The second series is very interesting and should be extremely competitive. The Dodgers just hold a three and a half game lead over the Padres in the NL West. 

Bottom Line:

With the race for the NL wildcard so tight, these two upcoming series could define the entire season for these four teams. As we approach the final days, the intensity is only just beginning.

Which of these four teams do you think will fall short of the wildcard? Comment below.