My Top 3 Bets For The NFL Season Opener

 

Photo From Bailey Bassett @ Clutchpoints

It has been 207 days, but the NFL is back! The reigning back-to-back Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs, will kick off the season by hosting the Baltimore Ravens. This matchup is a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship, and there’s a strong chance these two teams could face each other again in this year’s conference title game.

Sportsbooks across the country will have their hands full on Thursday night as the NFL season opener is one of the most popular games to bet on for the year. With that said, here are the top three bets I would make to start the NFL season.

1. Ravens Moneyline (+130)

The books currently have Baltimore as a three-point underdog. While it is always nice to have the field goal insurance, I am taking the Ravens to win this game straight up, with the moneyline on Draftkings currently set at +130.

The Ravens should be playing with a ton of motivation entering this game. They can make a statement by going into Arrowhead Week 1 and taking down the team that stopped them from making the big dance last year.

There are two huge reasons why I think the Ravens can be better on offense this year than they were last year.

1. Mark Andrews: The pro bowl tight end who is arguably Lamar Jackson’s favorite target went down in Week 10 last season with a cracked fibula and a ligament injury. Andrews did make an appearance in the AFC championship game, but he was a non-factor, finishing with two receptions for 15 yards. When Andrews was fully healthy in the 2021 and 2022 seasons, he combined for over 2,200 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns. Andrews is not just a great pass catcher but also a solid blocker. Andrews coming into the season at full strength is enormous for Baltimore.

2. Derrick Henry: Henry signing with Baltimore this offseason was  huge addition to the Ravens offense. Henry has been an elite running back on a subpar offense for the majority of his eight-year career, all of which he spent with the Tennessee Titans. In the 119 games played as a Titan, Henry had 2,020 carries for 9,502 rushing yards and 90 touchdowns. Over the last decade, no running back in the league has had more rushing yards or touchdowns than Henry. Aside from his elite skill set, Henry is incredibly durable, having played in 92% of his NFL career games. Although Henry (30 years old) is not in the athletic prime of his career anymore, he can still play at a very high level and can be a huge contribution to this already high-powered Baltimore offense.

The 2023 Ravens finished first in sacks and turnovers, and they gave up the fewest points in the league last season. With a majority of their core returning in 2024, expect them to be one of the strongest defensive units in the league. While no team can shut down Patrick Mahomes, I believe the Ravens can contain him.

Let me be very clear when I say I rarely do this, and by "this," I mean bet against Patrick Mahomes and company. The Chiefs can obviously win this game. They have the best player in the world under center and added some exciting pieces in the offseason. The reality is a Week 1 loss does not affect a high-caliber team like the Chiefs, who lost to the Detroit Lions in last year's season opener. The Chiefs are awesome, but I think the Ravens are hungrier for a win entering this contest.

2. Derrick Henry To Score a Touchdown (-120)

At 6' 2", 247 lbs, Derrick Henry has made a name for himself as one of the hardest running backs to take down. Henry breaks tackles left and right and has one of the nastiest stiff arms in the league. Derrick Henry never played behind a great offensive line in Tennessee, but that did not stop him from finding the end zone. In eight seasons as a Titan, he averaged 10 touchdowns per season. I expect his new team to feed him the ball near the goal line and introduce him to what a premier offense looks like.

3. Lamar Jackson 50+ rushing yards (-115)

With his speed, agility, and ability to read a defense, Lamar is always one play away from breaking off a 50+ yard run. While he has been a bit less mobile the last few seasons, Lamar is still the biggest rushing threat among quarterbacks, and it's not even close.

Jackson averaged 52 rushing yards per game last season. I expect him to play with a chip on his shoulder against the Chiefs. Plus, Kansas City was not great against the rush last year, finishing 18th in rushing yards allowed. 

What bets are you taking tonight? Comment below.