Predicting Every 2024 AFC Division Champion

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With two and a half weeks left until the beginning of the 2024 NFL season, I thought it would be the perfect time to make some season-ending predictions.

Today, I will be giving my prediction for every division winner in the AFC, with a blog to follow tomorrow covering the NFC.

AFC EAST: New York Jets

This is a tough one to determine. The Jets looked like the best team on paper in the AFC East entering last season, but they lost Aaron Rodgers four plays into the year, which ultimately ended the Jets season.

Almost one year later, Rodgers has fully recovered from his torn Achilles injury. On top of Rodgers returning, we learned two positive things about the Jets that should carry over into this season.

1. They have a top-3 defense in the NFL. They are elite at stopping the run and pass.
2. Breece Hall is a true RB1 who could lead the league in rushing yards this season.

The icing on the cake is Garrett Wilson. The wide receiver was expected to have a breakout season last year, but Rodgers’ injury put that on hold. Garrett is an explosive route runner with great hands and is expected to be Rodgers’ favorite target.

The Jets defense was awesome last year, finishing 3rd in fewest yards allowed per game and 12th in fewest points allowed per game. While those numbers do not jump out at you like other teams on this list, it’s important to remember the Jets defense was on the field often last season because the offense was so unproductive.

Honorable mention goes to the: Miami Dolphins. The Fins should once again be one of the most high-producing offensive teams in the NFL. However, they have a lot of question marks on the defensive end, which is why I can’t confidently predict they take the division.

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

There may not be a team in the NFL that has higher expectations entering the 2024 season than the Baltimore Ravens. In my opinion, this team is one more early playoff exit away from earning the tag    “just a good regular season team.”

The Ravens have the two most important pieces to form a truly great team. 

1. An Elite Defense: The Ravens applied more pressure on defense last season than any other team in the league, finishing as league leaders in sacks and turnovers.
2. An Elite QB: In his five seasons in the league, Lamar Jackson has already locked up two regular season MVPs. Lamar is the best mobile quarterback in the league and is also an elite passer.

The Ravens had the best defense in the league last year. They finished first in fewest yards allowed per game as well as fewest points allowed. With almost the entire defense returning for the 2024 season, I predict they will finish as a top 3 defense once again.

Honorable mention goes to the: Cincinnati Bengals. It would not surprise me if the Bengals won the division. I feel that Joe Burrow and Co. are poised for a massive bounce-back season after Burrow went down with a ligament tear in week 10 last season. However, the Ravens seem more equipped defensively to make a run than the Bengals do.

AFC South: Houston Texans

This team is STACKED on offense. CJ Stroud had an unbelievable rookie campaign, and unless he gets diagnosed with the sophomore slump, I expect him to be a top-5 QB this season.

Houston recognized how special of a talent Stroud is this past season and acquired two huge assets this offseason to help make Stroud's life easier.

1. Stefon Diggs: The 4x pro bowler, who is already a proven WR1 on two teams (Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills), helps an offense. Not just with what he can do on the field, but with the veteran presence he has off the field.
2. Joe Mixon: Mixon is an above-average running back, especially when inside the goal line. In his 7-year career, Mixon has amassed over 6,400 rushing yards, 2,100 receiving yards, 49 rushing touchdowns, and 13 receiving touchdowns.

On top of that, I expect another big season from Nico Collins. The 25-year-old had a breakout season last year. Also, look for second-year receiver Tank Dell to put up big numbers. Dell and Stroud built an awesome on-field connection last year before Dell went down with a broken fibula.

The Texans have a middle-of-the-pack defense. They finished last season ranked 14th in total yards allowed per game, and they finished 11th in fewest points allowed. I expect the overall defense unit to improve with the offseason addition of veterans like Danielle Hunter, Denico Autry, and Azeez Al-Shaair.

Honorable mention goes to: No one. I think the Jaguars could be a solid team this year, but until Trevor Lawrence takes that next step, I do not see them taking the division. I am also eagerly awaiting the return of Indianapolis Colts QB, Anthony Richardson, who looked like Cam Newton 2.0 before spraining his right AC joint back in week 5 of last year, but I still do not see the Colts surpassing the Texans.

AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs

As long as Patrick Mahomes is under center, I will always choose the Chiefs to win the AFC West.

Mahomes has been the best offensive player in the league since he became a full-time starter for the Chiefs back in 2018.

I can list 20 reasons why I think Mahomes will be able to engineer another high-powered offense this season, but to save time, here are two of them.

1. Travis Kelce: Ol’ Reliable is back for his 12th season as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. Although Travis is getting up there in age (turns 35 in October), he is still a top-three TE in the league, finishing last season with 93 receptions for 984 yards and five touchdowns. Kelce and Mahomes chemistry is unmatched. They hold the record for the most touchdowns by a duo in NFL postseason history.
2. With the last pick in the first round of the 2024 NFL draft, the Chiefs selected Xavier Worthy, a wide receiver from the University of Texas at Austin. Worthy ran a 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the 2024 Combine, which is the fastest time in combine history. His speed/quickness mixed with Mahomes accuracy/precision makes for a deadly combination.

With Mahomes under center, Kansas City has focused more heavily on trying to improve the defense over the last few seasons, and the results are paying off. The Chiefs defense was spectacular last year. They finished second in fewest yards allowed per game and fewest number of points given up. I am expecting similar results this season, especially after they re-signed Chris Jones, who is one of the best defensive tackles in the league and the Chiefs leader on defense.

Honorable mention goes to: No one. The AFC West is arguably the weakest division in the conference. The Broncos, Raiders, and Chargers are the bottom half of the league teams and present no threat to the Chiefs.

Who do you have locking down each division in the AFC for this season? Comment below.