What is an MLB Summer Swoon?

Photo Taken By Cory Thoman 

The “Summer Swoon” is a phrase that was invented on Wall Street. The idea is that investors go on vacation in May, which causes a quiet period in the stock market for the summer months.

The MLB has adopted this term for teams that play awesome baseball in April and May but start losing consistently at some point during the summer, usually by the middle of June or the beginning of July.

We see an example of a team suffering the Summer Swoon each season, and it makes sense to me that this happens. Think about it: the MLB crams 162 regular season games over six months, so factors leading to Summer Swoon are bound to reach the surface. Here are, in my opinion, the four most common factors that lead to a Summer Swoon

1. Injuries

2. Regression in play

3. Strength of schedule

4. Team depth

Let’s take a look at three teams that have suffered a Summer Swoon over the past three years, including the ongoing 2024 season.

2024 New York Yankees

Before anyone attacks me for putting the Yankees on this list, I understand that while I am typing this, the Yankees are 18 games over.500 (56-38), and if the season ended today, they would have clinched a wildcard spot in the playoffs. However, given their play over the last six weeks, it looks like a Swoon may be brewing in the Bronx.

April-May Record: The Yankees were the best team in baseball in the spring. April was a decent month for the Bronx Bombers, going 14–12. They kicked things into another gear in May, finishing the month with an impressive 21-7 record. Over the first two months of the season, a majority of the league crowned the Yankees the best team in baseball. On June 1st, they had a record of 41-19, which at the time was the best record in the American League and the second-best record in all of baseball.

Rest of the Season: There is still plenty of baseball left this season for the Yankees to correct course, but players and fans are certainly not optimistic about their current state. Since June 14th, the Yankees have lost 16 of their last 22 games. They no longer hold first place in the AL East (two games back from the first-place Baltimore Orioles) and only have a 4.5-game lead in the wildcard standings. Since June 14th, they have given up 134 runs, second most in the MLB behind the Colorado Rockies. Since June 16, the Yankees have posted a Major League-worst ERA of 6.11. Additionally, New York has only scored 20 runs in their last eight losses, batting just 7-for-46 (.152) with runners in scoring position during those games, YIKES!

2023 Tampa Bay Rays

April-May Record: The Rays had an outstanding start to the 2023 season, going 23-6 in April and finishing May with a 40-18 record. They were leading the AL East by four games on May 31st, and Vegas gave them the best odds to win the World Series heading into June.

Rest of the Season: Despite their hot start, the Rays faced challenges as the season progressed, including the absence of two of their most productive position players, Wander Franco (who was suspended due to ongoing sexual misconduct allegations) and Brandon Lowe, as well as three of their top pitchers: Drew Rasmussen, Jeffrey Springs, and Shane McClanahan, who were sidelined with injuries. None of these players were on the postseason roster. Although they still made the playoffs with a 99-63 record, they were swept in the wildcard by the Texas Rangers, losing those two games by a combined score of 11-1.

2022 Minnesota Twins

April-May Record: The Minnesota Twins started the 2022 season on a high note. The Twins held a 29-19 record at the end of May, leading the AL Central. Two players who had great starts to the season and helped fuel the Twins early success were Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa. Buxton was a standout, hitting 11 home runs and driving in 21 runs by the end of May. Correa batted.279 and provided defense that put him in the Gold Glove conversation.

Rest of the Season: However, the Twins experienced a significant decline as the season progressed. Despite their promising start, the Twins faced challenges that led to a disappointing finish. Injuries to key players such as Byron Buxton and Jorge Polanco severely impacted their lineup. Additionally, their pitching performance declined, particularly in the bullpen (ERA spiked to 5.15 by the end of the season), which struggled to close out games. The team's batting average fell, and their inability to hit with runners in scoring position became a major issue. Ultimately, the Twins finished the season with a 78-84 record, missing the playoffs despite leading the division from May 24th until September 4th.

Bottom Line

The “Summer Swoon” is something we see every year in the MLB, and it makes sense given the tough 162-game grind. Teams like the 2024 Yankees, 2023 Rays, and 2022 Twins show us that a strong start in April and May doesn't always mean smooth sailing to the playoffs. Injuries, slumps, tough schedules, and lack of depth are the usual suspects that cause these mid-season dips.

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